Looking at how Favorites and Underdogs Did in Week 1 of the NFL

Handicappers often scream about trends regarding favorites and underdogs when offering a pick on a game. I thought it might be interesting to see how they did this week. I went back to look at the spreads for every NFL game in Week 1. (It’s funny how fast they disappear!)

Unless noted, I found the spreads at CBS, and the scores on ESPN.

Eagles -8 vs. Cowboys; Eagles win 24-20; underdog covered but loses game (this was a game I bet, so I remember the spread started at 7 and I got it at 8)

Chiefs -3 vs. Chargers; Chargers won 27-21; underdog won outright (found spread at Fox Sports)

Buccaneers -1 at Falcons; Buccaneers win 23-20; favorite covered

Bengals -5.5 at Browns; Bengals win 17-16; underdog covered but lost game

Colts -1 vs. Dolphins; Colts win 33-8, favorite covered

Jaguars -4.5 vs. Panthers; Jaguars win 26-10; favorite covered

Patriots -2.5 vs. Raiders; Raiders win 20-13; underdog won outright

Cardinals -6.5 at Saints; Cardinals win 20-13; favorite covered

Steelers -3 at Jets; Steelers win 34-32; underdog covers but lost game

Commanders -6 vs. Giants; Commanders win 21-6; favorite covered

Broncos -7.5 vs. Titans; Broncos win 20-12; favorite covered

49ers -2.5 at Seahawks; 49ers win 17-13; favorite covered

Packers -2.5 vs. Lions; Packers win 27-13; favorite covered

Rams -3 vs Texans; Rams win 14-9; favorite covered

Ravens -1.5 at Bills; Bills win 41-40; underdog won outright (this dropped to 1 where I bet it)

Vikings -1.5 at Bears; Vikings win 27-24; favorite covered (this dropped to .5 where I bet it)

Favorites were 10-6 against the spread, losing outright 3 times. (Feel free to check my numbers; I went through the scores manually.) Only 1 underdog winning the game outright was on the road – Raiders. Of the underdogs covering the spread, at least 3 were at home. Only 8 home teams won outright. (I’m not counting the Chargers playing on a neutral field, but they may have been designated the home team.)

What does this mean? It’s only one week, obviously, so it’s a very small sample size. From what I’ve heard over the years listening to people talk about favorites versus underdogs, this is probably a fairly low cover rate for favorites. However, one guy I’ve listened to very closely for quite a while says lines are “soft” early in the season because line makers don’t know much more about the teams than fans do at that point. These results support his statement.

I still wonder if it means much. (For the record, I rarely look at trends to decide if I want to bet a game.) I watched four NFL games this week: Cowboys-Eagles, Chiefs-Chargers, Jets-Steelers, Vikings-Bears (second half). At least three of them, I think, could have flipped on one or two plays. If CeeDee Lamb catches either of two passes that most people would say he “should” have caught, Dallas easily could have won that game. (They covered anyway.) Pittsburgh recovered a fumble on a kick off to the Jets in the fourth quarter, and basically scored back-to-back touchdowns. Of course, there are a few plays you can pick in Baltimore’s collapse Sunday night against Buffalo, from Derrick Henry’s fumble to the Ravens’ conservative play calling in their next offensive series.

I get it – you can cherry pick plays from every game all day long and argue that they might have flipped the outcome. And if one play doesn’t go the way it did, the rest of game is played differently.

That’s my point. Ultimately, these outcomes will support one “trend” or another. Be careful relying on them.